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SCENARIO PROCESS FOR AR5

   

THE IPCC AND SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

The IPCC has used emissions and climate scenarios as a central component of its work of assessing climate change research. Previously, the IPCC convened authors and modelers, provided terms of reference, and approved the scenarios through an intergovernmental process. Previous IPCC scenarios include the 1990 IPCC Scenario A (SA90) in for the First Assessment Report (FAR), the 1992 IPCC Scenarios (IS92) used in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) in TAR and the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

Now, for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC decided to rely on scenarios being developed by the research community and to limit its role to catalyzing and assessing scenarios (see Item 5 and Annex 4 in the Report of the IPCC’s 25th session http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session25/final-report.pdf).

Scenarios Previously Approved by the IPCC

SA90
IPCC. Emissions scenarios from the response strategies working group of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Appendix 1. In Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Prepared for IPCC by Working Group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. (1990). (Report available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_app_01.pdf )

IS92
Leggett, J., W.J. Pepper, and R.J. Swart. Emissions Scenarios for IPCC: an update. In Climate Change 1992. The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment eds Houghton, J.T., B.A. Callander & S.K. Varney. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 69–95. (1992).
(Report available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/1992%20IPCC%20Supplement/IPCC_Suppl_Report_1992_wg_I/ipcc_wg_I_1992_suppl_report_section_a3.pdf and final digital data set available at the IPCC DDC: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/is92/)

SRES
Nakicenovic, N. et al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. (2000).
(Report available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0 and final digital data set available at the IPCC DDC: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/sres/)

Evaluations of Scenario Methods and Results in Recent IPCC Assessments

A number of evaluations of scenarios have been conducted by the IPCC and other organizations. Some key IPCC references include:

Carter, T.R. et al. New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, & C.E. Hanson. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 133-171 (2007)

Fisher, B.S. et al. Issues related to mitigation in the long term context. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Eds B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, & L.A. Meyer. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 169-250 (2007)

Carter, T.R. et al. Developing and Applying Scenarios In Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Eds J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken, & K.S. White. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 145-190 (2001)

Mearns, L.O. et al. Climate Scenario Development. In Climate Change 2001: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, & D.J. Griggs. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 739-768 (2001)

Weyant, J. et al. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison of Approaches and Results. In Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eds J.P. Bruce, H. Lee, & E.F. Haites. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 367-398 (1996) (available in the chapter 10, pp367, of the full report: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sar/wg_III/ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report.pdf )


Content last modified: 28 March 2017