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SCENARIO PROCESS FOR AR5

 

REFERENCES AND RESOURCES

Key References for AR5 Scenario Process
Richard H. Moss, Jae A. Edmonds, Kathy A. Hibbard, Martin R. Manning, Steven K. Rose, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Timothy R. Carter, Seita Emori, Mikiko Kainuma, Tom Kram, Gerald A. Meehl, John F. B. Mitchell, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Ronald J. Stouffer, Allison M. Thomson, John P. Weyant1 & Thomas J. Wilbanks, 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463: 747-756. doi:10.1038/nature08823
(available online at: Nature: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7282/full/nature08823.html)

Richard H. Moss, Mustafa Babiker, Sander Brinkman, Eduardo Calvo, Timothy Carter, Jae Edmonds, Ismail Elgizouli, Seita Emori, Lin Erda, Kathy Hibbard, Roger Jones, Mikiko Kainuma, Jessica Kelleher, Jean Francois Lamarque, Martin Manning, Ben Matthews, Jerry Meehl, Leo Meyer, John Mitchell, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Brian O’Neill, Ramon Pichs, Keywan Riahi, Steven Rose, Paul Runci, Ron Stouffer, Detlef van Vuuren, John Weyant, Tom Wilbanks, Jean Pascal van Ypersele, and Monika Zurek., 2008. Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 132 pp.
(available online at the IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/expert-meeting-report-scenarios.pdf)

Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Joseph Alcamo, Gerald Davis, Bert de Vries, Joergen Fenhann, Stuart Gaffin, Kenneth Gregory, Arnulf Gr�bler, Tae Yong Jung, Tom Kram, Emilio Lebre La Rovere, Laurie Michaelis, Shunsuke Mori, Tsuneyuki Morita, William Pepper, Hugh Pitcher, Lynn Price, Keywan Riahi, Alexander Roehrl, Hans-Holger Rogner, Alexei Sankovski, Michael Schlesinger, Priyadarshi Shukla, Steven Smith, Robert Swart, Sascha van Rooijen, Nadejda Victor, Zhou Dadi, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. (2000).
(report, including SPM in multiple languages, available at the IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/)
(final digital data set also available at the IPCC DDC: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/sres/)

RCP Selection and Process
Moss, R.H., et al., 2008. Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 132 pp.

Moss, R.H. et al., 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463: 747-756. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08823.

van Vuuren, D.P. et al. 2008. Work Plan for Data Exchange Between the Integrated Assessment and Climate Modeling Community in Support of Phase-0 of Scenario Analysis for Climate Change Assessment (Representative Community Pathways). Available at http://www.aimes.ucar.edu/docs/RCP_handshake.pdf.

Weyant et al., 2009. Report of 2.6 vs. 2.9 Watts/m2 RCP Evaluation Panel, Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium, 80 pp. Available at http://www.iamconsortium.org.

van Vuuren DP, JA Edmonds, M Kainuma, K Riahi, AM Thomson, K Hibbard, GC Hurtt, T Kram, V Krey, J-F Lamarque, T Masui, M Meinshausen, N Nakicenovic, SJ Smith, and S Rose . 2011a. The representative concentration pathways: an overview Climatic Change, 109: 5-31. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z. Available at: http://www.springerlink.com/content/f296645337804p75/.

RCP 3-PD
van Vuuren, D. P., Eickhout, B., Lucas, P. L. & den Elzen, M. G. J. 2006. Long-term multi-gas scenarios to stabilise radiative forcing — Exploring costs and benefits within an integrated assessment framework. Multigas mitigation and climate policy. The Energy Journal. 3 (Special Issue), 201–234.

van Vuuren, D., M. den Elzen, P. Lucas, B. Eickhout, B. Strengers, B. van Ruijven, S. Wonink, R. van Houdt, 2007. Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Climatic Change. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9172-9.

van Vuuren, D, E Stehfest, MGJ den Elzen, T Kram, J van Vliet, S Deetman, M Isaac, K Klein Goldewijk, A Hof, A Mendoza Beltran, R Oostenrijk, B van Ruijven. 2011b. RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2�C, 109:95-116. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3. Available at:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/701751t54248643j/

RCP 4.5
Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H. Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, R. Richels, 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, 7 DC., USA, 154 pp.

Smith, S.J. and T.M.L. Wigley, 2006. Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with the MiniCAM. The Energy Journal (Special Issue #3) pp 373-391.

Wise, MA, KV Calvin, AM Thomson, LE Clarke, B Bond-Lamberty, RD Sands, SJ Smith, AC Janetos, JA Edmonds. 2009. Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy. Science. 324:1183-1186.

Thomson A, K Calvin, S Smith, P Kyle, A Volke, P Patel, S Delgado-Arias, B Bond-Lamberty, M Wise, L Clarke, and J Edmonds. 2011. RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Climatic Change, 109:77-94. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4. Available at::
http://www.springerlink.com/content/70114wmj1j12j4h2/

RCP 6.0
Fujino, J., R. Nair, M. Kainuma, T. Masui, Y. Matsuoka, 2006. Multi-gas mitigation analysis on stabilization scenarios using AIM global model. Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy. The Energy Journal, 3 (Special Issue).

Hijioka, Y., Y. Matsuoka, H. Nishimoto, M. Masui, and M. Kainuma, 2008. Global GHG emissions scenarios under GHG concentration stabilization targets. Journal of Global Environmental Engineering 13, 97-108.

Masui T, K Matsumoto, Y Hijioka, T Kinoshita, T Nozawa, S Ishiwatari, E Kato, PR Shukla, Y Yamagata, M Kainuma. 2011. An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm−2 radiative forcing. Climatic Change, 109:59-76. DOI; 10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5. Available at:: http://www.springerlink.com/content/2558w01458131545/

RCP 8.5
Rao, S. & Riahi, K. 2006. The role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in climate change mitigation: Long-term scenarios for the 21st century. Multigas mitigation and climate policy. The Energy Journal. 3 (Special Issue), 177–200.

Riahi, K. Gruebler, A. and Nakicenovic N. 2007. Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 74, 7, 887-935. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026.

Riahi K, S Rao, V Krey, C Cho, V Chirkov, G Fischer, G Kindermann, N Nakicenovic, P Rafaj. 2011. RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change. 109:33-57. DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y.
Available at:: http://www.springerlink.com/content/q5024170k1t504t7/

Pattern Scaling in Climate Modeling
Mitchell, J. F. B., T. C. Johns, M. Eagles, W. J. Ingram, and R. A. Davis, 1999: Towards the construction of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 41, 547–581.

Mitchell, T. D., 2003: Pattern scaling. An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates. Climatic Change, 60, 217–242.

Ruosteenoja K, Tuomenvirta H, Jylh� K (2007) GCM-based regional temperature and precipitation change estimates for Europe under four SRES scenarios applying a super-ensemble patternscaling method. Climatic Change 81, 193–208.

Land-Use Harmonization
Hurtt, G.C., Chini, L.P., Frolking, S., Betts, R., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Goldewijk, K.K., Hibbard, K., Janetos, A., Jones, C., Kinderman, G., Kinoshita, T., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., vanVuuren, D., and Y.P. Wang. 2009. Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5. iLEAPS Newsletter 7:6-8. Available at http://gel.umd.edu/images/Hurtt_2009_iLEAPS.pdf .

Hurtt G, L Chini, S Frolking, R Betts, J Edmonds, J Feddema, G Fisher, KK Goldewijk, K Hibbard, R Houghton, A Janetos, C Jones, G Kinderman, T Konoshita, K Riahi, E Shevliakova, SJ Smith, E Stefest, AM Thomson, P Thornton, D van Vuuren, and Y Wang. Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. 2011. Climatic Change, 109:117-161. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2. Available at
http://www.springerlink.com/content/y1n5n86570r356q5/

Historical Emissions
Lamarque, J-F., Granier, C., Bond, T., Eyrling, V., Heil, A., Kainuma, M., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Riahi, K., Schultz, M., Sith, S., Stehfest, E., Stevenson, D., Thomson, A., vanAardenne, J., and D. vanVuuren. 2009. Gridded emissions in support of IPCC AR5. IGAC Newsletter 41: 12-18. Available at http://www.igacproject.org/sites/all/themes/bluemasters/images/NewsletterArchives/Issue_41_May_2009.pdf .

Granier C, B Bessagnet, T Bond, A D’Angiola, HD van der Gon, G Frost, A Heil, M Kainuma, J Kaiser, S Kinne, Z Klimont, S Kloster, J-F Lamarque, C Liousse, T Matsui, F Meleux, A Mieville, T Ohara, K Raihi, M Schultz, SJ Smith, AM Thomson, J van Aardenne, and G van der Werf. Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980–2010 period. 2011. Climatic Change, 109:163-190. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0154-1. Available at http://www.springerlink.com/content/m72616127617wht3/

Lamarque J-F, GP Kyle, M Meinshausen, K Riahi, SJ Smith, DP van Vuuren, AJ Conley, and F Vitt. 2011. Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climatic Change, 109:191-212. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0. Available at http://www.springerlink.com/content/231207127112k026/

Greenhouse gas concentrations: extensions from 1765 to 2300
Meinshausen M, SJ Smith, KV Calvin, JS Daniel, MLT Kainuma, J-F Lamarque, K Matsumoto, S Montzka, S Raper, K Riahi, AM Thomson, GJM Velders, and DP van Vuuren. 2011. The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and Their Extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109: 213-241. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z. Available at: http://www.springerlink.com/content/96n71712n613752g/.


Content last modified: 1 May 2014